Should the Qaddafi regime fall, uncertainty over who controls Libya or whether they enjoy broad support would likely erode public order and threaten the provision of basic goods and services to the population. Such instability could not only produce a humanitarian disaster, it could lead to the emergence of new authoritarian leaders or the breakup of the country. Such outcomes would also discredit the NATO-led intervention and threaten vital European interests, including oil and gas supplies, as well as increase the likelihood of large-scale emigration. It is appropriate, therefore, for the European Union (EU) to lead an international post-Qaddafi stabilization effort, preferably under a UN umbrella, to facilitate participation by members of the Arab League and the African Union (AU). A paramilitary police force of up to three thousand personnel to maintain public security will be required in the initial stages after Muammar al-Qaddafi falls.
Daniel Serwer, Council on Foreign Relations
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